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The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has announced that it expects to sees canal traffic tonnage for the rest of the year to be up to five percent less than the same months in fiscal 2008. For the first seven months of the fiscal year tonnage was down 2.4 percent compared to fiscal 2008. ACP expects to see world trade some back strong by 2011 making 2010 a building year.

The United States is the largest consumer and supplier of goods passing through the Panama Canal. Thus the recession in the United States is the most important factor in the decline in tonnage passing through the Panama Canal. Considering the depth of the recession in the United States Panama Canal traffic is holding up pretty well.

According to ACP there are few container ships passing through the Panama Canal and fewer ships carrying cars to the USA. 

ACP expects that in 2010 tonnage will improve but will still be 2 percent less than in 2008 and that by 2011 it will recover to 2008 levels. These projections are primarily based upon US and world economic projects. As the US economy recovers and imports more again Panama will see and upsurge in traffic.

In 2014, with the completion of the Panama Canal Expansion ACP expects the canal to be seeing the same type of year-to-year growth that it saw prior to the recession.

The expansion is expected to attract much larger boats, as the new “third land” locks will be substantially longer and wider than the current locks. The winner of the bidding for the new locks is due to be announced in June or July of 2009.

Panama investment seems to be forging ahead despite problems elsewhere. Panama still has a booming construction industry and is adding workers. There had been some worry with the finalization of the Colon to Panama highway and the Cinta Costera project. However, there appears to be enough projects to absorb any “excess” workers.

A note about trade passing through the Panama Canal is that a lot of it is fuel such as refined petroleum or liquefied natural gas, which are needed in all economic times.

Despite a slight drop off in tonnage in the Canal Panama’s economy grew by 3 percent in the first four months of 2009. Panama has a much more balanced economy than those who only see the real estate think.

Panama investment has done well for a decade or more and will take off again as the recession clears. Those are in place before the end of the year will do best. Whether it is the residential real estate market or commercial real estate prices are holding steady right now but will in all likelihood head up again in 2010 and later.

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